連戰 連勝文 激發藍選票
2010年11月28日蘋果日報
國民黨榮譽黨主席連戰之子連勝文在投票前夕遭槍擊，撼動五都選情，除了激發深藍選民投票意願，連家人不刻意操作悲情的表現，也獲中間選民認同，讓國民黨如願守住北二都、保住大台中。民進黨操盤人士認為，「槍擊案是選舉關鍵因素！」國民黨輔選高層也坦承，連勝文槍擊案對選情確有幫助。
影響北二都最深
台北市長郝龍斌說，這次選戰連勝文根本是當作自己在選的為他拉票，槍擊案發生後，他去探望時，連勝文還說不能去投票，「很難過」；昨晚近7時確定勝選後，他打電話告訴連勝文「我們已經勝選了」，連勝文非常高興。國民黨政策會執行長林益世說，連戰在槍擊案中不刻意操弄悲情，不誇大連勝文傷勢，切合中間選民對政治人物的期待，對藍軍選情有莫大幫助。國民黨輔選高層說，連勝文被槍擊讓台中市長胡志強險勝，也穩定了新北市長朱立倫的選情。民進黨操盤人士表示，槍擊案影響最大就是北二都，選前黨內民調顯示北二都呈現膠著，輸贏都在1%內，但槍擊案激發藍營投票意願，結果蘇貞昌輸郝龍斌近17萬票，蔡英文輸給朱立倫11萬票，「如果沒有槍擊案，北二都勝負很難說」。民進黨中執委陳其邁也說，原本國民黨大高雄市長候選人黃昭順預估只會拿下10%得票，結果拿下20%，顯見槍擊案讓藍營選票回流。
血的慘勝 國民黨響警號
2010/11/28
(星島日報報道)台灣「五都」市長選舉The five cities election結果昨夜出爐，選前的槍擊案令這次選舉有了超過七成的高投票率，並拉高了國民黨的選情，但最後國民黨僅能順利保住台北、新北、台中三市，惟總得票還較對手民進黨少了約四十萬約五個百分點，故國民黨僅為「慘勝」。國民黨主席馬英九選後提出「勿驕勿餒」等十六字箴言與外界共勉，這個選舉結果已為國民黨是否能在二○一二年續執政響了警鐘。
喧囂半年多的台灣五都「三合一」（直轄市長、市議員、里長）選舉Municipal elections昨天終於迎來投票日。因選舉人口佔全台六成，被視為二○一二總統大選前哨戰。
受到天氣好、選前之夜連勝文被槍擊事件影響，民眾投票踴躍，投票率超過七成。各票站一早就湧入民眾 ，部分票站更是人潮不斷，投票秩序大致平順。
下午四點投票截止，立即開票，各候選人的競選總部都有支持者聚集關注結果。從一開始，國民黨在中北部的三都候選人一路領先，民進黨候選人則迅速在台南、高雄二都拋開對手。
不到晚七時，民進黨台南市長候選人賴清德率先自行宣布當選，國民黨台中市長候選人胡志強、民進黨高雄市長候選人陳菊、國民黨台北市長候選人郝龍斌、國民黨新北市長候選人朱立倫，也先後自行宣布當選。
「龍斌，龍斌，龍斌，凍蒜，凍蒜，凍蒜！」郝龍斌以近八十萬票勝選連任後，近八時來到競選總部接受支持者的歡呼：「謝謝大家！」「這是我們對台北未來的選擇，未來的四年，我一定會全力發展經濟。」
郝龍斌還說，已經告訴因受槍傷住在醫院裏的連勝文「我們贏了！」隨後他還和太太、支持者一起為連勝文的傷勢靜默祈禱。
「感謝各位鄉親對朱立倫的支持跟關懷，大家信任朱立倫，把未來四年交給我，我一定把它做好，一定認真打拚，做最好的市長。」朱立倫拿下新北市後，向選民作出承諾。
台中市長當選人胡志強僅勝民進黨的蘇嘉全三萬票，不斷遭記者追問「為何國民黨選票流失嚴重」。對比五年前台中縣市長選舉，國民黨這次的得票總數只增加五萬票，但民進黨大幅增加超過二十四萬。
「我會記取選民給我的指教，好好努力，把大台中的一切做到最好。」胡志強發表當選感言時說。
對於連勝文選前之夜被槍擊是否藍贏的關鍵，國民黨榮譽主席吳伯雄昨晚坦承：「說沒有（幫助）不是事實，一定有的！」但他認為，關鍵是「最後我們最後的衝刺很好！」
綠營方面，賴清德在台南大勝對手近二十二萬票，陳菊在高雄市比兩個對手的得票總和還要多八萬票，南部根據地更加穩固。
民進黨不僅在總得票數多國民黨四十萬票，首次參加直選的黨主席蔡英文得票也衝破百萬，黨內地位更加穩固。蘇貞昌在台北得票也不低，蔡英文和蘇貞昌均被支持者要求二○一二參選總統。
台湾、与党・国民党が勝利
2010/11/27
５大都市の人口は台湾全体の６割を占め、二大政党は12年の次期総統選の前哨戦と位置付け臨んだ。台湾独立を志向する野党・民進党は南部の台南、高雄の２ポストを維持したうえ、全体の得票率で国民党を上回った。大敗した08年の総統選からの復調は鮮明で、政権奪還に望みをつないだ。
国民党は選挙戦で、今年の実質域内総生産（ＧＤＰ）が9.98％成長を実現する見通しになり、10月の失業率が約２年ぶりに５％を切るなど、経済運営での実績を誇示。欧州連合（ＥＵ）が台湾住民に対する査証免除を決めるなど、中国以外の各国と関係が深まっていることも強調した。
一方、民進党は党綱領に掲げる台湾独立は主張せず、「改変」「Ｎｅｗ」など過去との決別を示すイメージを前面に押し出した。貧富の差の拡大や失業率の高止まりなどの経済問題に積極的に取り組む姿勢を訴えた。
国民党の支持基盤である外省人（中国大陸出身者とその子孫）の比率が高い北部の２市では、民進党は台北に蘇貞昌・元行政院長（首相）、新北に蔡英文・党主席という大物を擁立。接戦の予想が大半だったが及ばなかった。
26日に国民党の連戦名誉主席の長男が選挙集会で銃撃を受け重傷を負ったことで、同党支持者の投票意欲が高まった面もあるとみられる。
一方、本省人（戦前からの台湾住民とその子孫）が多い南部の台南、高雄では、民進党候補が大差で勝利した。この結果、民進党の５大都市全体での得票率は50％に迫り、国民党を５ポイント超上回った。
Taiwan pro-China親中 party holds edge in mayoral races
* China seen calm as KMT keeps 3 of 5 posts
* Taiwan financial markets seen steady or stronger next week
(Adds election results, analyst quote)
By Ralph Jennings
路透認為，金融市場很有可能會有慶祝行情。一般認為，2012年馬英九若連任成功，台灣將與中國進行政治協商。
路透也表示，國民黨至少短期內會讓台灣在政治上與中國保持一段距離。
路透指出，國民黨正與北京密切進行經貿協商，5席贏3席可以安撫北京，投資人原本擔心民進黨勝選，將危及馬英九連任之路，並衝擊台灣與中國的經貿關係，如今結果將使台灣金融市場至少維持穩定。
路透也表示，選舉結果等於是國民黨止住頹勢，因為國民黨在去年地方選舉以及今年初改選中連連失利。
TAIPEI, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Taiwan's China-friendly ruling party held onto most of the island's mayoral posts up for grabs in tense elections on Saturday seen as a test of the party's popularity ahead of the 2012 presidential race.
Wins in three of five mayoral seats gave the Nationalist Party, or KMT, a clear shot at retaining the presidency, which will calm Beijing as it has worked closely with the party on landmark trade deals after decades of political hostilities.
China has claimed sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan for six decades but since 2008 has discussed economic issues with President Ma Ying-jeou's government. Beijing hopes those talks will lead eventually to political unification.
"Of course China doesn't want to see any change in the status quo, particularly in the three cities that the KMT has held for a long time," said Shane Lee, political scientist at Chang Jung University in Taiwan.
The KMT won second four-year terms in Taipei and Sinbei, the island's two largest cities, and in the central city of Taichung. The anti-China opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) held the southern cities of Kaohsiung and Tainan.
Taiwan financial markets will at least remain stable and may gain on the KMT's victories as the results herald more tie-ups between export-reliant Taiwan and economic powerhouse China.
Investors had feared that a DPP win could extend to the presidency and threaten trade deals. China and Taiwan are due to talk next year about new import tariff cuts following an economic cooperation framework (ECFA) signed in mid-2010.
Saturday's wins also end a slump for the KMT. The party did poorly in local polls elsewhere in Taiwan last year and in by-elections earlier this year as Ma's opinion poll ratings struggled after a string of 2009 domestic flaps. [ID:nRISKTW]
However, Taiwan politics change fast, meaning the 2012 presidential race will be decided by unforeseen new issues dominating the public agenda that year.
KMT leaders were low-key in their acceptance speeches.
"Hau Lung-bin will go to the people and listen to their voices," the reelected Taipei mayor said of himself in a televised speech. "There are a lot of areas where we need to review and improve."
Taiwan's ruling party wins 3 of 5 mayoral市長 races
By PETER ENAV
Associated Press
美聯社指出，儘管國民黨搶得3席，但民進黨總得票數占49.9％，超越國民黨的44.2％，可視為馬英九尋求連任的困難度增加。
美聯社指出，民進黨主席蔡英文在新北市僅以5個百分點落敗，她正以2012年民進黨總統候選人之姿崛起，反觀參選台北市市長的蘇貞昌以12個百分點落敗，未來獲得提名的聲勢明顯較弱。
TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) -- Taiwan's ruling Nationalist Party won three out of five mayoral races Saturday, providing a boost for President Ma Ying-jeou's policy of improving relations with China ahead of the island's 2012 presidential poll.
But the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party, which wants to slow the process of reconciliation with the mainland, won about 50 percent of the overall mayoral vote, signaling that it will provide strong opposition to Ma's expected re-election bid - stronger by far than seemed possible only six months ago.
With 95 percent of the votes counted, the Central Election Commission results showed the Nationalists had insurmountable leads in Taipei, the new Taipei suburban constituency of Xinbei, and the central city of Taichung. DPP candidates were in unassailable positions in two large cities in the party's southern heartland - Kaohsiung and Tainan.
Together the five constituencies account for about 60 percent of Taiwan's population of 23 million.
The commission said the DPP's overall share of the mayoral vote stood at 49.9 percent, against 44.2 for the Nationalists and 5.9 percent for independents, compared to the 43 percent the DPP candidate garnered in the five constituencies in the 2008 presidential poll. Much credit for the comeback goes to party Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen, who while losing in Xinbei - by about five percentage points - now emerges as a credible candidate for the party's presidential nomination in 2012.
Her main DPP rival, party veteran Su Tseng-chang, 63, lost by an unexpectedly high 12 percentage points in Taipei to incumbent Hau Lung-bin. The result may well put an end to any presidential nomination hopes for Su.
Conceding defeat in Xinbei, the American and British-educated Tsai said she was learning the populist approach that DPP candidates seem to favor in presidential campaigns.
"The citizens of Xinbei have turned me from a university professor, a member of the elite, into an accessible, personable, crowd-embracing politician," she said. "I really appreciate that."
Saturday's voting took place in the shadow of unusual election eve violence in the Taipei suburb of Yung Ho, where an alleged gangster opened fire at a Nationalist campaign rally, killing 29-year-old Huang Yun-sheng and seriously wounding Lien Sheng-wen, son of former Vice President Lien Chan.
Lien, the scion of one of Taiwan's most powerful political families, is being treated in a Taipei hospital.
Lin Cheng-wei, 48, was taken into custody in connection with the attack. He told reporters that he had targeted local city council candidate Chen Hung-yun because of a dispute between Chen and Lin's father.
Acts of violence are uncommon in election campaigns in Taiwan, which began a gradual transition from a one-party dictatorship to vibrant democracy in the late 1980s. Violence by Taiwan's gangs is also limited, though they exercise considerable political influence, particularly on county governments.
With the local elections out of the way, the attention of Taiwan's heavily politicized population will now turn to the presidential poll in March 2012, which is expected to be fought largely on the issue of Taiwan's relations with China, from which the island split amid civil war in 1949.
Harvard-educated Ma, 60, favors expanding Taiwan's already robust commercial ties with the mainland, and if re-elected, could begin political talks with Beijing.
In contrast, the DPP wants to slow the pace of economic convergence across the 100-mile (160-kilometer) -wide Taiwan Strait and would likely close the door on political dialogue with China's Communist government. That might worry the United States, which has applauded Ma's success in helping ease tensions in one of Asia's traditional flash points.
Still, compared to Ma presidential predecessor Chen Shui-bian, Tsai is regarded as a moderate on China policy, eschewing his hard-line pro-independence positions in favor of a much more measured approach.
Tsai, 54, is thought to have considerable appeal among the same centrist voters who put Ma over the top in 2008.
Ruling party dominates佔主導地位 Taiwan polls
Nationalist Party retains three out of five mayoral seats in polls marred by violence.
Last Modified: 27 Nov 2010
半島電視台
Taiwan's ruling party has held onto most of the island's mayoral seats in elections seen as a test of the party's popularity ahead of the 2012 presidential race.
Wins in three of five mayoral seats on Saturday gave the Nationalist Party, or KMT, a clear shot at retaining the presidency, which will calm neighbouring China as it has worked closely with the party on landmark trade deals after decades of political hostilities.
The KMT won second four-year terms in Taipei and Sinbei, the island's two largest cities, and in the central city of Taichung.
The anti-China opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) held the southern cities of Kaohsiung and Tainan.
Saturday's wins also end a slump for the KMT. The party did poorly in local polls elsewhere in Taiwan last year and in by-elections earlier this year as opinion poll ratings for Ma Ying-jeou, the president, declined.
However, Taiwanese politics change rapidly, meaning the 2012 presidential race will be decided by unforeseen new issues dominating the public agenda that year.
Status quo
But China's influence on the island will always be a major issue and the two countries are due
to talk next year about new import tariff cuts following an economic co-operation framework (ECFA) signed in mid-2010.
"Of course China doesn't want to see any change in the status quo, particularly in the three cities that the KMT has held for a long time," Shane Lee, political scientist at Chang Jung University in Taiwan, told Reuters news agency.
Meanwhile, KMT leaders were low-key in their acceptance speeches.
"Hau Lung-bin will go to the people and listen to their voices," the re-elected Taipei mayor said of himself in a televised speech.
"There are a lot of areas where we need to review and improve."
Violence also marred the polls as voters cast ballots after the son of a former vice-president was shot and wounded during a ruling party campaign rally near Taipei late on Friday.
Media reports said a man arrested for the shooting was a member of a criminal gang and did not appear to have a political motive.
In 2004, Chen Shui-bian, an opposition leader, won the presidency by a thin margin after a bullet grazed him and his running mate.
The KMT said that incident was staged to win sympathy votes.
2010 ELECTIONS: Voters confirm ‘status quo’
TAIPEI TIMES
The KMT kept its hold on Taipei City, Sinbei City and Greater Taichung, while Greater Tainan and Greater Kaohsiung will stay in DPP control. However, the total vote-count was in the DPP’s favor
Ending weeks of expectation and speculation, yesterday’s special municipality mayoral election only confirmed the status quo, with no major shift made in the five metropolitan cities in terms of the overall political landscape.
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) retained hold of Taipei City, Taipei County (which will be renamed Sinbei City after its upgrade next month) and Greater Taichung, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) maintained control of Greater Tainan and Greater Kaohsiung.
Statistically speaking, however, the total vote-count was in the DPP’s favor as the party garnered 3,772,373 votes — accounting for 49.9 percent of all votes cast in both mayoral and councilor elections in the five special municipalities against the KMT’s 3,369,052 votes — or 44.5 percent.
Compared with the 2008 presidential election during which President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) received more than 4.5 million votes in the five special municipalities, the KMT has lost more than 1 million votes in the areas this time, while the DPP gained more than 340,000 votes in the five municipalities, raising speculation that the KMT may be in crisis even though it won more mayoral seats.
According to the Central Election Commission (CEC), the overall turnout was approximately 71.7 percent for the mayoral elections, and about 71.7 percent for city council elections in the five special municipalities.
In each individual special municipality, the voter turnout was 70.6 percent in Taipei City, 71.2 percent in Taipei County, 73.1 percent in -Taichung, 71 percent in Tainan and 72.5 percent in Kaohsiung, CEC figures showed.
KMT Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) won re-election with 797,865 votes — or 55.6 percent of all votes against his DPP rival Su Tseng-chang’s (蘇貞昌) 628,129 votes, while KMT Sinbei mayor-elect Eric Chu (朱立倫) garnered 1,115,536 votes — or 52.6 percent of the vote, beating DPP nominee Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) — who won 1,004,900 votes — by more than 110,000 votes.
Taichung Mayor Jason Hu (胡志強) of the KMT claimed re-election, receiving 730,284 votes — or 51.12 percent of the vote, beating DPP candidate Su Jia-chyuan (蘇嘉全) — who received 698,358 votes — by only a little more than 30,000 votes.
In Greater Tainan, the DPP’s William Lai (賴清德), as widely expected, won a landslide victory over his KMT opponent, Kuo Tien-tsai (郭添財), by more than 200,000 votes.
In Greater Kaohsiung, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu (陳菊) of the DPP also scored an insurmountable lead over the KMT’s Huang Chao-shun’s (黃昭順) 319,171 votes and Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing’s (楊秋興) 414,950 votes, who ran as an independent.
The CEC will hold a meeting to confirm the results for mayoral and city councilor elections on Friday and officially publicize the results that day. At a post-election press conference at KMT headquarters, KMT Secretary-General King Pu-tsung (金溥聰) acknowledged the number of overall votes the KMT received in the five cities, which fell behind the number of votes the DPP received, was a warning sign and he said the KMT would reflect upon the election result.
“Although we secured three cities in the elections, we fell behind the DPP when it comes to the overall votes. The KMT will take it as a warning sign and work harder to strive for better performance,” he said.
King blamed Kaohsiung County Commissioner Yang Chiu-hsing (楊秋興), who ran the election as an independent candidate after withdrawing from the DPP in August, as the reason behind the party’s disappointing turnout, since Yang successfully attracted some swing voters in the Kaohsiung election.
President Ma Ying-jeou, who doubles as KMT chairman, did not attend the press conference. King said Ma asked all party members not to be proud or discouraged by the election results, and that they should persist in party reform.
Meanwhile, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen acknowledged the poll results did not live up to expectations, but added the party would humbly accept the results.
“We understand that it was a disappointment,” Tsai said. “At the same time, however, we still want to congratulate our candidates in Greater Tainan and Greater -Kaohsiung and we hope that they can bring their residents happiness in the future.”
“In the [other municipalities] … although the candidates lost, they did so with honor,” she added.
Despite the loss, the DPP did not announce a shake-up of senior officials, aside from the originally scheduled retirement of DPP -Secretary-General Wu Nai-jen (吳乃仁). Tsai is expected to continue to lead the party as it heads into the legislative elections next year.
“We have grown in these past two years, but we still face greater challenges ahead,” Tsai said. “But I will stay strong and confidently lead the DPP into the future.”
As for how the DPP failed to take at least three seats, originally hinted as a strong possibility prior to the vote, Wu said the party would need to undertake further analysis. It was too early, he said, to tell whether the shooting of Sean Lien (連勝文), son of former vice president Lien Chan (連戰), on Friday night had affected the popular vote.
“Taking a closer look at this incident will be hard,” he said.
However, regardless of the reason why, “I know that this time, the number of seats we took did not live up to everyone’s -expectations,” he said.
Key questions hanging over yesterday’s poll were the performances of Tsai and Su. The two are considered the DPP’s leading presidential candidates in 2012, and with an eye to that election, party members were looking to see who emerges from the voting in the stronger position.
Yesterday’s elections went forward in the shadow of unusual election-eve violence, marked by last-minute drama on Friday night when Sean Lien was shot and injured in a campaign rally in Taipei County. Sean Lien was hit in the face by a bullet in an incident that most local media have thus far attributed to gang violence.
Acts of violence are unusual in election campaigns in Taiwan, which began a gradual transition from a one-party dictatorship to fully functioning democracy in the late 1980s.
Violence by Taiwan’s gangs is also limited, though they exercise considerable political influence, particularly on county governments.
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