(07/08/2010 My1510.cn blog)
At Baidu, there is a very popular forum post.
我來自未來 / 小滿中士
2010-07-04
百度上現在有一個貼子特別火，題目是：來自不遠的將來，願意瞭解的請進
內容是：
The title is: "I am from the near future; please enter if you want to know."
The content of that post is:
作者：X來自未來
發貼時間：2010-6-13 12:04
原貼地址：http://tieba.baidu.com/f?z=797481906&ct=335544320&lm=0&sc=0&rn=30&tn=baiduPostBrowser&word=2012&pn=0
截止到我寫這篇文章為止，現在這個貼子總回復數為8509，轉貼次數也有500。作者X來自未來已經有2520位粉絲關注。
這真是一件很神奇的事！作者在一個月前就已經預測了世界盃決賽的結果，而且到目前為止還沒有證據證明他是錯的，因為荷蘭和西班牙都已經進入到4強，也完全有可能在決賽中相遇。從貼子的回復情況就能看出，大家都在關注最終的結果，而且震驚於預言到目前為止的準確性。
我們都知道預測世界盃是很難的，即使連貝利、貝肯鮑爾這樣的足球名宿也經常預測失敗，更不用說我們這些普通人了。從32只球隊中猜中進入決賽的兩隻隊伍的名字的概率是1/32*31=1/992，差不多是千分之一的機會。即使除去亞洲、非洲等弱隊，可以將種子隊的數量減少到10只以內，也需要1/90的機會。這樣看這位“X來自未來”的確有點神奇！
As I write this essay, there are 8,509 comments and 500 re-posts. There are 2,520 fans who follow this author.
This is an amazing story! This author predicted the outcome of the World Cup final a month ago. So far, he has been proven right. The large number of comments show that people are impressed by the accuracy of his prediction so far.
We know that it is hard to predict the World Cup. Even famous soccer veterans like Pele and Franz Beckenbauer are frequently wrong, never mind plain folks like us. On a random basis, the chances of guessing the two finalists out of the 32 qualifiers is (1/32)*(1/31) = 1/992. If we eliminate the weaker teams down to a list of 10 strong qualifiers, there is still only a (1/10)*(1/9) = 1/90 chance. So this prediction by "X Came From The Future" is somewhat miraculous.
我們觀察一下這個人。從百度公開的資料來看，這位元“X來自未來”惜字如金，除了上面的貼子外，他還在貼中回復了一句：
What about this person? Based upon the public Baidu information, "X Came From The Future" has written very little. In the comments to this post, he wrote: "If you want to know more about the future, you can try to leave your email address here. I can forward some photos and videos of Holland winning the World Cup. But you must delete them after you view them for reasons that you must understand."
除上面兩貼外，他還在6月19日發表新貼：
在這三貼中，最有價值的就是關於決賽隊伍的預測了。從貼子的關注程度看，大家都想知道真的有人可以預測未來嗎？如果不是，他又是怎麼做到的呢？
這是我的問題，我想也是很多人的問題。於是我帶著好奇進行下一步的調查，就像急於瞭解劉謙魔術秘密的小男孩一樣。
我發現這位作者的名字很有趣，叫“X來自未來”。這是很容易讓人產生聯想的名字，它也為貼子增加了幾分神秘色彩。我又發現這個貼子來自於百度貼吧的“2012吧”，這同樣也是一個很讓人興奮的名字。2012+來自未來+準確的預測，難道這不暗示著什麼嗎？聯想到2012的電影、世界末日，難道這一切都是真的？
我一直認為，世界上如果真有神仙就好了，至少他會解決一些事情。可是往往事與願違，很多神奇的事件背後只是一些有趣的把戲而已，就像魔術一樣。
前面我說到，如果把強隊數量縮小到10只以內（這是完全可能的），猜中兩隻決賽隊伍的概率會大大增加，那麼也就容易得多了。於是我們很容易想到，如果一個人想要顯示自已的神奇預測能力，只要把所有可能性都說一遍，那麼總會有一個是准的。雖然其它錯誤的預測會被人嗤之以鼻，但聽過那個碰巧唯一正確結果的人，往往會驚訝得目瞪口呆。他能有什麼反應取決於他的腦容量的大小，腦袋越大反應越強烈。
所以是不是這位“X來自未來”發表了很多預測貼子，只等我們願者上鉤呢？結果我們已經知道了，事實上他並沒有發過其它類似的貼子，這也就排除了我上面說法的可能性！
Apart from the above, he made a new post on June 19: "I will be very busy during the second half of the year. Please be psychologically ready."
This is very ambiguous and seems to be intentionally confusing.
The most important thing here is the prediction of the finalists. Everybody wanted to know if there is someone who can really predict the future? If not, then how was he able to make good his prediction (so far)? ...
[Note: Nobody who left an email address has received photos/videos of the Holland win before the game actually took place. The audience statistics are now 210,314 comments; 6,912 re-posts; 38,706 followers]
等一等！真的可以排除嗎？當然不會，我們這位朋友並不傻，他當然不會用同一個名字去說幾十次內容矛盾的話。更大的可能是，他註冊了若干的ID，用每一個ID說一句話，不准預測的會隨風飛逝，但準確的那個會一直保留下來受到關注，就像大家看到的那樣。為了驗證我的想法，我又到“2012吧”去看了一下。結果呢？
結果我不但看到了B來自未來，C來自未來、V來自未來、Z……還看到了AV來自未來、領導來自未來、影帝來自未來……，甚至還有“X來自未來 ”（看出區別了麼？）。不幸的是我還看到了他們有一個統一的頭像：一個蔚藍的地球。原來“X來自未來”並不是唯一的一個，他應該是一個大家庭中的一員。雖然未來軍團的兄弟們也都有不同程度的預測，但真正保存下來的還是我們看到的那一個。原因很簡單，因為它剛好准了。
事到如此，再深入下去已經沒有多少必要了。我更願意相信這是某個人或某幾個人的一個善意的玩笑，逗大家一笑而已，並沒有別的目的。如果有人說你太無聊了，說破了結果多沒意思，我不介意。但如果有人把這貼子當成了2012的證據，那麼他還是應該看一看我說的話。
這個貼子的回貼還在繼續，不明真相的群眾持續增加中。。。。
就在我寫完這篇文章的時候，很多“來自未來”的貼子已經被刪除了，很可惜我沒有截圖。
現在我忽然覺得這件事有了一個更深刻的意義。那就是它和宗教經典的形成過程很接近：起初有各種說法，最後通過一些刪減，將有用的保留下來。經過這樣處理，後來的信眾們就會完全徹底的相信了。
Was this yet another Internet promotional campaign for something or the other? Here is a comment to this blog post:
Firstly, this post by "X Came From The Future" has been drawing comments continuously over the past month. It did not start only after the quarterfinals. When the post appeared on June 13, it was already drawing attention. People were commenting on a daily basis. At first, they made fun of it. If someone was running a promotional campaign, they'd have to make 992 different predictions and make sure that each gets the appropriate number of comments on a continuous basis. I don't think that this is operationally feasible.
Secondly, this post began to draw a lot of attention by the time of the final eight. There should be many similar predictions, falling into 4x4 = 16 possible combinations. But so far only this post has received a disproportionate amount of attention. Nobody cared about the other combinations such as (Uruguay vs. Germany, Holland vs. Germany, Uruguay vs. Germany, etc).
Thirdly, logically speaking, it is enough to predict the finalists and the eventual winner. There is no need to predict the score and the goal scorers. This is now a much harder prediction task, so that there could not be parallel posts that consider other outcomes.
Therefore, I don't think that this is a promotional campaign coming from a handful of people. Over at the 2012 post bar at Baidu, there is a number of regular visitors. If numerous posts making different predictions show up suddenly, they will be noticed. It is not possible to manipulate this.
At Baidu, there is a very popular forum post.
我來自未來 / 小滿中士
2010-07-04
百度上現在有一個貼子特別火，題目是：來自不遠的將來，願意瞭解的請進
內容是：
The title is: "I am from the near future; please enter if you want to know."
The content of that post is:
“我來自不遠的未來，我知道很多人只會把我的話當是個玩笑，我願意先給大家一點事實的證據。
我給出的的證據很簡單，目前世界最關注的世界盃，決賽雙方將是荷蘭和西班牙，荷蘭2：1戰勝了西班牙，斯內德和另一個你們猜不出的替補球員進了球。希望我的這番話不要在世界盃決賽前傳到南非，否則我擔心球員心態受影響，從而改變了歷史。
一個月後我會回來，那時候希望你們願意相信我的所有關於未來的話！”
作者：X來自未來
發貼時間：2010-6-13 12:04
原貼地址：http://tieba.baidu.com/f?z=797481906&ct=335544320&lm=0&sc=0&rn=30&tn=baiduPostBrowser&word=2012&pn=0
I come from the near future. I know that many people with treat my words like a joke. I am willing to offer you some factual evidence.
The evidence that I provide is very simple. At the moment, the whole world has its attention on the FIFA World Cup. In the final game, the two sides shall be Holland and Spain. Holland will defeat Spain by a score of 2:1. Sneijder and another substitute player that you won't be able to guess will score the goals. I hope that these words do not reach South Africa before that game, because I am concerned that players will be affected psychologically and thus change the outcome of the game.
I shall be back one month later. At that time, I hope that you will be willing to believe everything that I say about the future!
Author: "X Came From The Future"
Time of post: 2010-6-13 12:04
截止到我寫這篇文章為止，現在這個貼子總回復數為8509，轉貼次數也有500。作者X來自未來已經有2520位粉絲關注。
這真是一件很神奇的事！作者在一個月前就已經預測了世界盃決賽的結果，而且到目前為止還沒有證據證明他是錯的，因為荷蘭和西班牙都已經進入到4強，也完全有可能在決賽中相遇。從貼子的回復情況就能看出，大家都在關注最終的結果，而且震驚於預言到目前為止的準確性。
我們都知道預測世界盃是很難的，即使連貝利、貝肯鮑爾這樣的足球名宿也經常預測失敗，更不用說我們這些普通人了。從32只球隊中猜中進入決賽的兩隻隊伍的名字的概率是1/32*31=1/992，差不多是千分之一的機會。即使除去亞洲、非洲等弱隊，可以將種子隊的數量減少到10只以內，也需要1/90的機會。這樣看這位“X來自未來”的確有點神奇！
As I write this essay, there are 8,509 comments and 500 re-posts. There are 2,520 fans who follow this author.
This is an amazing story! This author predicted the outcome of the World Cup final a month ago. So far, he has been proven right. The large number of comments show that people are impressed by the accuracy of his prediction so far.
We know that it is hard to predict the World Cup. Even famous soccer veterans like Pele and Franz Beckenbauer are frequently wrong, never mind plain folks like us. On a random basis, the chances of guessing the two finalists out of the 32 qualifiers is (1/32)*(1/31) = 1/992. If we eliminate the weaker teams down to a list of 10 strong qualifiers, there is still only a (1/10)*(1/9) = 1/90 chance. So this prediction by "X Came From The Future" is somewhat miraculous.
我們觀察一下這個人。從百度公開的資料來看，這位元“X來自未來”惜字如金，除了上面的貼子外，他還在貼中回復了一句：
“希望瞭解未來情況的，可以試著把你的郵箱告訴我，我可以發一些荷蘭世界盃奪冠的照片和視頻資料，但是你必須要在看後清除，原因你們應該懂”
What about this person? Based upon the public Baidu information, "X Came From The Future" has written very little. In the comments to this post, he wrote: "If you want to know more about the future, you can try to leave your email address here. I can forward some photos and videos of Holland winning the World Cup. But you must delete them after you view them for reasons that you must understand."
除上面兩貼外，他還在6月19日發表新貼：
“下半年會很頻繁，大家請做好心理準備”內容很含糊，給人故作玄虛的感覺。
在這三貼中，最有價值的就是關於決賽隊伍的預測了。從貼子的關注程度看，大家都想知道真的有人可以預測未來嗎？如果不是，他又是怎麼做到的呢？
這是我的問題，我想也是很多人的問題。於是我帶著好奇進行下一步的調查，就像急於瞭解劉謙魔術秘密的小男孩一樣。
我發現這位作者的名字很有趣，叫“X來自未來”。這是很容易讓人產生聯想的名字，它也為貼子增加了幾分神秘色彩。我又發現這個貼子來自於百度貼吧的“2012吧”，這同樣也是一個很讓人興奮的名字。2012+來自未來+準確的預測，難道這不暗示著什麼嗎？聯想到2012的電影、世界末日，難道這一切都是真的？
我一直認為，世界上如果真有神仙就好了，至少他會解決一些事情。可是往往事與願違，很多神奇的事件背後只是一些有趣的把戲而已，就像魔術一樣。
前面我說到，如果把強隊數量縮小到10只以內（這是完全可能的），猜中兩隻決賽隊伍的概率會大大增加，那麼也就容易得多了。於是我們很容易想到，如果一個人想要顯示自已的神奇預測能力，只要把所有可能性都說一遍，那麼總會有一個是准的。雖然其它錯誤的預測會被人嗤之以鼻，但聽過那個碰巧唯一正確結果的人，往往會驚訝得目瞪口呆。他能有什麼反應取決於他的腦容量的大小，腦袋越大反應越強烈。
所以是不是這位“X來自未來”發表了很多預測貼子，只等我們願者上鉤呢？結果我們已經知道了，事實上他並沒有發過其它類似的貼子，這也就排除了我上面說法的可能性！
Apart from the above, he made a new post on June 19: "I will be very busy during the second half of the year. Please be psychologically ready."
This is very ambiguous and seems to be intentionally confusing.
The most important thing here is the prediction of the finalists. Everybody wanted to know if there is someone who can really predict the future? If not, then how was he able to make good his prediction (so far)? ...
[Note: Nobody who left an email address has received photos/videos of the Holland win before the game actually took place. The audience statistics are now 210,314 comments; 6,912 re-posts; 38,706 followers]
等一等！真的可以排除嗎？當然不會，我們這位朋友並不傻，他當然不會用同一個名字去說幾十次內容矛盾的話。更大的可能是，他註冊了若干的ID，用每一個ID說一句話，不准預測的會隨風飛逝，但準確的那個會一直保留下來受到關注，就像大家看到的那樣。為了驗證我的想法，我又到“2012吧”去看了一下。結果呢？
結果我不但看到了B來自未來，C來自未來、V來自未來、Z……還看到了AV來自未來、領導來自未來、影帝來自未來……，甚至還有“X來自未來 ”（看出區別了麼？）。不幸的是我還看到了他們有一個統一的頭像：一個蔚藍的地球。原來“X來自未來”並不是唯一的一個，他應該是一個大家庭中的一員。雖然未來軍團的兄弟們也都有不同程度的預測，但真正保存下來的還是我們看到的那一個。原因很簡單，因為它剛好准了。
事到如此，再深入下去已經沒有多少必要了。我更願意相信這是某個人或某幾個人的一個善意的玩笑，逗大家一笑而已，並沒有別的目的。如果有人說你太無聊了，說破了結果多沒意思，我不介意。但如果有人把這貼子當成了2012的證據，那麼他還是應該看一看我說的話。
這個貼子的回貼還在繼續，不明真相的群眾持續增加中。。。。
就在我寫完這篇文章的時候，很多“來自未來”的貼子已經被刪除了，很可惜我沒有截圖。
現在我忽然覺得這件事有了一個更深刻的意義。那就是它和宗教經典的形成過程很接近：起初有各種說法，最後通過一些刪減，將有用的保留下來。經過這樣處理，後來的信眾們就會完全徹底的相信了。
Was this yet another Internet promotional campaign for something or the other? Here is a comment to this blog post:
Firstly, this post by "X Came From The Future" has been drawing comments continuously over the past month. It did not start only after the quarterfinals. When the post appeared on June 13, it was already drawing attention. People were commenting on a daily basis. At first, they made fun of it. If someone was running a promotional campaign, they'd have to make 992 different predictions and make sure that each gets the appropriate number of comments on a continuous basis. I don't think that this is operationally feasible.
Secondly, this post began to draw a lot of attention by the time of the final eight. There should be many similar predictions, falling into 4x4 = 16 possible combinations. But so far only this post has received a disproportionate amount of attention. Nobody cared about the other combinations such as (Uruguay vs. Germany, Holland vs. Germany, Uruguay vs. Germany, etc).
Thirdly, logically speaking, it is enough to predict the finalists and the eventual winner. There is no need to predict the score and the goal scorers. This is now a much harder prediction task, so that there could not be parallel posts that consider other outcomes.
Therefore, I don't think that this is a promotional campaign coming from a handful of people. Over at the 2012 post bar at Baidu, there is a number of regular visitors. If numerous posts making different predictions show up suddenly, they will be noticed. It is not possible to manipulate this.
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