☭ marselip0910 叶俊华™

台湾総統選、馬氏が圧勝　国民党8年ぶり政権奪還

台湾総統選：日本政府は馬氏当選を歓迎　実利主義に期待

The opposition candidate in Taiwan's presidential election, Ma Ying-jeou, has won a clear victory.


The preliminary numbers in the presidential election are 7,658,724 votes (58.45%) for KMT's Ma-Siew team and 5,445,239 votes for DPP's Hsieh-Su team.

Taiwan By The Numbers (03/22/2008)FR: zonaeuropa

How did the public opinion polls do in predicting the results? Most of the polls have a number of "undecideds/don't know/refuse to say." The rule-of-thumb is to allocate these in the ratio to 30% to "blues" and 70% to "greens." For example, the last China Times poll had 49% for Ma-Siew and 22% for Hsieh-Su. That leaves 100%-49%-22%=29% undecided/don't know/refuse to say. 30% of 29% is 9% and therefore Ma-Siew should get 49%+9%=58% while Hsieh-Su should get the remaining 42%.

Here is the list of poll results (see Comment 200803b#024) based upon this formula (note: these polls were taken at least ten days before election day because no poll results can be published in the last ten days):

TVBS:
(原始數據)Raw data: 54% Ma-Siew; 29% Hsieh-Su
(調整後數據)Adjusted data: 59% Ma-Siew; 41% Hsieh-Su

China Times:
Raw data: 49% Ma-Siew; 22% Hsieh-Su
Adjusted data: 58% Ma-Siew; 42% Hsieh Su

United Press Daily:
Raw data: 52% Ma-Siew; 22% Hsieh-Su
Adjusted data: 60% Ma-Siew; 40% Hsieh Su

Apple Daily:
Raw data: 41% Ma-Siew; 20% Hsieh-Su
Adjusted data: 53% Ma-Siew; 47% Hsieh-Su

Global View Magazine
Raw/adjusted data: 62% Ma-Siew; 38% Hsieh-Su

Of the two non-media polls, the KMT had raw/adjusted data of 58% for Ma-Siew and 42% for Hsieh-Su last August. Meanwhile, South Society had raw data of 41% for Ma-Siew and 38% for Hsieh-Su, which would have worked out to be a 53%-47% victory for Hsieh-Su.

TVBS, China Times, United Daily Press and Global View magazine are considered to be "pan-blue" media and therefore their poll results have been denounced as biased propaganda. But two can play the same propaganda game, especially since public opinion polls are relatively cheap compared to other propaganda tools. So what are there no "pan-green" media polls (from FTV, SETV, Liberty Times/Taipei Times, etc)? They probably knew that honest polling would yield disheartening results and therefore it is better to do no polling themselves and denounce the pan-blue polls instead.


CNN: Taiwan opposition triumphs(大勝,黛安芬也是這個字..基測必考!!) in elections

Ma, whose campaign touted the economic benefits of better relations with China, defeated the Democratic Progressive Party's Frank Hsieh, who advocated going slower and holding back in some areas.

Taiwan's central election commission projected that Ma Ying-jeou had won more than 58 percent versus Frank Hsieh's 41 percent, with most of the votes counted.

Ma's vote total topped the 7 million mark, a point at which it would be mathematically impossible for him to lose, the commission said.

The commission estimated that 75 percent of Taiwan's eligible voters cast ballots in the presidential race.

While Ma was considered the frontrunner throughout the campaign, the recent crackdown on anti-Chinese protests in Tibet was used by the opposition in an effort to convince voters that there was danger in dealing with China.

Hsieh, pointing to China's crackdown on Tibet, said the same thing could happen to Taiwan if it gets too close to Beijing. Ma disagreed.

"Taiwan is not Tibet. Neither it is Hong Kong. We are a sovereign country and a democratic country."

The mainland Chinese government has made clear that closer ties would only be a first step -- it considers Taiwan, on the island of Formosa southeast of the mainland, an inseparable part of China and constantly pushes for eventual reunification.

謝長廷：接受敗選事實，聚集我們的力量，繼續熱愛台灣



台灣人民已經用選票做出決定，我們接受敗選的事實。我們在這裡，要恭喜馬英九先生跟蕭萬長先生。

很遺憾，民主進步黨這一次的表現不如預期，我們辜負人民的期待，在此我應該也願意負起最大的責任。我在這裡也要呼籲民主進步黨的支持者，冷靜面對這樣的結果。民主包括結果、也包括過程，過程難免有爭議，但是我們接受，不要再有抗爭，讓我們的社會非常迅速地能夠修補因為選舉所留下來的裂痕，讓我們的人民能夠很快地生活在愛與信任的環境裡面。

我們選舉失敗，但是我們還有更重要的任務，就是祖先留下來的民主的火種，不能熄滅，我們要轉失望為動力，守護台灣的民主。我相信所有民主進步黨的同志都會謙卑、反省，但是身為候選人，我要承擔較大的責任。我除了會兌現對敗選的一切承諾外，也將持續守護民主、守護台灣，我的生命屬於台灣，捨此無處可去，這是我個人的挫折，不是台灣主體性的倒退，是民主的結果，不是民主的失敗。

我要感謝這次選舉過程中辛苦的同志、幹部，還有志工，這段時間的付出跟辛苦。我不會忘記316擊掌每一雙溫暖的手、我們心中的感動，我們將永遠保留這樣的熱愛，愛我們的台灣、愛我們的土地、愛我們的國家。

我再次重申 選舉是我個人的失敗，不是台灣的失敗，今天不要為我哭泣，聚集我們的力量，繼續熱愛台灣。台灣的發展從來就不是順風而行，風愈大我們愈要走，我們要永遠跟人民站在一起，衷心地為台灣祝福，我們相信人民，也相信台灣。

再一次，我代表所有競選團隊的幹部，為我們辜負大家的期待，為這一次的敗選，深深地向大家表示我的歉意。